The Russian elite is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of President Vladimir Putin’s conflict in Ukraine. Even the most optimistic Russian elite members regard a “frozen” conflict as the Kremlin’s best current option, as the possibilities for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine abound in pessimism.

According to seven people with knowledge of the situation who requested not to be identified because the subject is sensitive, many people in the political and corporate elite are sick of the war and want it to end, but they don’t believe Putin would put an end to the combat.

Although no one is prepared to challenge the president over the invasion, four of the respondents claimed that they had lost all faith in his ability to govern.

Despite their scepticism that Putin would cease the fighting, many members of the political and corporate elite are sick of the conflict and want it to end. “…Deepening darkness… Even the most hopeful people in Russia’s elite believe that a “frozen” conflict is the best possible outcome from Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Many members of the political and commercial elite apparently want the conflict to end because they are tired of it, but they don’t believe Putin would do so.

Nobody is reportedly eager to challenge Putin over the invasion, but people’s complete faith in his leadership has been dented. Russian politicians and wealthy business executives know that there is no end to the fighting in sight and that they might face years of isolation abroad and growing reliance on the Kremlin.

 Putin is pressuring companies to aid in the military effort. He forbids those who work for him from quitting their jobs. On February 23, 2022, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba described Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his country as a “full-scale invasion.”

Western officials have expressed concern that Russia’s military incursions and bombing campaigns across Ukraine might spark the worst armed confrontation in Europe since World War II. But in February 2022, public opinion surveys in Russia revealed that support for Putin is soaring as concerns about a potential confrontation rose.

Supporting political leadership amid a global crisis may have a temporary “rally ’round the flag” effect. Data from the past shows that diversionary conflicts, or fighting overseas to distract people from issues at home, have rarely been successful for Putin.

History also teaches us that risky and expensive military expeditions will eventually hurt the Kremlin’s standing. For Putin, diverting attention from domestic issues has rarely been effective. History also teaches us that risky and expensive military expeditions will eventually hurt the Kremlin’s standing.

Experts in Russia and public opinion show that the awareness of going to war eventually calls for far greater public support for a political leader than a momentary upsurge in popularity can provide.

Over the past several months, Putin’s popularity has steadily increased, and this corresponds with Russia’s military build-up near the Ukrainian border.

The Levada Centre, a Russian polling organization, estimates that 69% of Russians currently support Putin, compared to 61% in August 2021. Putin is also unpopular with 29% of Russians, down from 37% in August 2021.

The polling company is the top independent source of sociological research in Russia. In the same time frame, support for Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and his government somewhat also grew.

Most of the Russian populace thinks that, by opposing the West, the Kremlin is safeguarding Russia. Since he was elected, Putin has received a lot of positive reviews facing the west head-on.

Since he was elected president for the first time in May 2000, Putin has had a comparatively high popularity rating. In his first 20 years in government, his approval rating was 79% on average.

This tendency is attributed by some political scientists to “Putin’s personal charisma and public image” as well as Russians’ inclination for a “strong ruler.”

Other scholars contend that Russians’ apathy and symbolic faith in political leaders are actually correlated with Putin’s popularity ratings. Putin won approval from Russian MPs to send military personnel overseas on February 22.

Putin signed agreements on the same day with the two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine, the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic, whose political leaders are backed by Russia.

Since 2014, when supporters of Vladimir Putin overthrew Ukrainian authorities in the towns of Donetsk and Luhansk, over 13,000 people have lost their lives in combat in the Donbas area, as it is called.

Despite all the pomp and show from Putin, Russian official media has consistently denied that Kiev was being warmed up for war. Western forecasts of an impending invasion of Ukraine were often derided on Russian talk programs as “hysteria” and “absurdity.” Lies regarding security were broadcast on Russian news programs.

Russian attacks are escalating the unease, including the biggest drone attack against Moscow since the war began. Russia’s reputation as the guardian of its security has been weakened as fighting has spread to the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine.

According to Kirill Rogov, the president of the Vienna-based think group Russia and a former counsellor to the Russian government who fled the country following the invasion, “There is an elite deadlock: they are afraid to become scapegoats for a meaningless war.”

“It is amazing how prevalent the notion that Putin might not win this war became among the Russian elite.”

“Officials have adapted to the situation, but no one sees any light at the end of the tunnel–they’re pessimistic about the future,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian journalist and central bank advisor who is now a non-resident scholar at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre. The best they can hope for is to lose to Russia without being humiliated.

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